The largest crypto-native prediction market, settled on Polygon with an order book for every market.
Up or Down markets on every coin and timeframe. Quotes come from the order book; markets resolve on a Chainlink price feed.
Sources
Venues
The sources PolySignals.net reads. Coins and windows are discovered from what each venue lists right now. Each venue’s readings are shown on their own before they are blended, and a venue only joins a cell when it quotes the very same window.
Prediction markets
Markets that price a yes/no question directly: will the coin close the window up? The Up share’s price is the crowd’s probability.
A US exchange for event contracts, regulated by the CFTC, with dollar-settled crypto price markets.
15-minute Up or Down markets on all coins, plus hourly and daily (5 pm US Eastern) above-or-below strike ladders that PolySignals.net turns into hourly and 1-day readings (marked derived).
Live coverage
See Kalshi readingsAn on-chain prediction market on Base with short-dated crypto price markets.
Up or Down markets: 5- and 15-minute for BTC and ETH, hourly and daily for six coins. Volumes are small, so confidence is usually low.
Live coverage
See Limitless readingsThe prediction market of the Gemini exchange, a US-regulated venue with dollar-settled crypto price markets.
5- and 15-minute Up or Down markets on BTC, ETH, SOL and XRP, plus hourly above-or-below ladders that PolySignals.net turns into an hourly reading (marked derived). Quotes are tight but little trades, so confidence is usually low.
Live coverage
See Gemini readingsOptions-implied
Not prediction markets. The prices of calls and puts at the nearest daily expiry imply the chance that the coin closes the day above where it opened. These readings are labelled as options, cover the 1-day window only, and are never blended with prediction-market windows (their day runs 08:00 to 08:00 UTC).
Not a prediction market: the options exchange of the largest crypto exchange, with daily-expiring calls and puts.
The prices of the calls around the window’s opening price at the nearest daily expiry (08:00 UTC), turned into the implied chance that the coin closes above where the day opened. BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, SOL and DOGE; 1-day window only, marked derived.
Live coverage
See Binance options readingsNot a prediction market: the largest crypto options exchange, with daily expiries on its coin-settled and USDC-settled books.
Same derivation as Binance options: BTC and ETH from Deribit’s coin-settled calls (converted to dollars at the expiry’s forward price), SOL, XRP, HYPE, AVAX and TRX from its USDC-settled ones; 1-day window only, marked derived.
Live coverage
See Deribit options readingsNot a prediction market: the options market of the Bybit exchange, with USDT-settled daily expiries.
Same derivation as Binance options, from Bybit’s calls at the nearest daily expiry (08:00 UTC): BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, DOGE and MNT; 1-day window only, marked derived.
Live coverage
See Bybit options readingsNot a prediction market: the options market of the OKX exchange, with daily expiries on BTC, ETH and SOL.
Same derivation as Binance options: BTC and ETH from OKX’s coin-settled calls (converted to dollars at the spot price), SOL from its USD-settled ones; 1-day window only, marked derived.
Live coverage
See OKX options readingsAlso checked but not included: Opinion (hourly BTC, ETH and BNB markets exist but had no order-book liquidity), PancakeSwap Prediction (BNB 5-minute parimutuel rounds that never align with other venues), Myriad (no timed price markets), Predict.fun (API key required), and Crypto.com, Drift, Manifold and Metaculus (no public recurring price windows). Robinhood, Coinbase and Webull prediction markets are Kalshi under another name. Details in the repository’s docs/venues.