Glossary
Every term the boards, the API and the signaler use, in a sentence or three, with the exact numbers. Each one links to the page that explains it in full.
The action a score points to: +20 or more is a Buy (+60 or more a strong Buy), -20 or less a Sell (-60 or less a strong Sell), anything between a Hold. A held call, the one the backtest follows, only changes 4 points past a threshold, at medium confidence or better and outside the late window.
A number from -100 to +100: 200 × (Up probability - 0.5). It mostly restates how far the coin has moved since the window opened, scaled by the time left, so it is a readout of the move so far, not a forecast of the next one.
The crowd's price, from 0 to 1, for the coin closing the current window above the price it opened at. On a prediction market it is the price of the Up share; on an options exchange it is implied by option prices.
The period a reading is about: 5 minutes, 15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours or 1 day, each with a fixed start and end in UTC. Every window gets its own reading, and the next window's appears as soon as a venue lists it.
The last 20% of a window. The outcome is nearly settled by then, so a late reading's confidence is halved and it never changes a held call.
How much the market behind a reading can be trusted, from 0 to 100: the depth of its sources (volume and resting orders) × how closely they agree × timing. 70 or more is high, 40 to 69 medium, below 40 low. It does not say whether the call will be right.
A short binary market on Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless or Gemini that pays $1 if the coin ends a window above its opening price and nothing otherwise, so its price is the crowd's probability of Up. Some venues quote a ladder of strike prices instead, from which that probability is interpolated.
A reading from Binance, Deribit, Bybit or OKX options: the probability that the coin finishes the day above where the window opened, worked out from the implied volatility of the strikes nearest that price and the time to the daily expiry. It covers the 1-day window only.
A source PolySignals.net reads: four prediction markets (Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless and Gemini) and four options exchanges (Binance, Deribit, Bybit and OKX). Each one has its own board, next to the combined one.
The blend of every venue's reading for the same coin and window: a quality-weighted average of their Up probabilities. The options exchanges are merged into one source first, so four venues pricing the same options market do not count four times.
The gap between the highest and the lowest Up probability among the qualifying sources of a window. A gap of 0.20 or more brings the agreement part of the confidence score to zero.
One call per coin: the confidence-weighted average of the combined scores of the 1-hour, 4-hour and 1-day windows. Late and empty readings are skipped, and the 5- and 15-minute windows are left out.
A trend rule on the Coinbase daily close, decided at 00:05 UTC: long once the close is more than one daily sigma (its 20-day volatility) above its 50-day average, flat once it is more than one sigma below, unchanged in between. A coin needs 200 daily closes first, and trades about five round trips a year.
The two states of the daily trend call. Long means holding the coin, flat means holding dollars. The rule never goes short.
The two levels that decide the daily trend call: the 50-day average of the daily close, raised and lowered by 1 daily sigma (the standard deviation of the last 20 daily returns). A flat coin turns long on a close above the upper band, a long coin turns flat on a close below the lower band. The trend changes page lists the coins whose live price is closest to the band that would change their call.
How far the latest daily close sits from its 50-day average, as a percentage of that average divided by the daily sigma (the standard deviation of the last 20 daily returns), shown as +1.50σ or −0.57σ. Above +1σ a flat coin turns long, below −1σ a long coin turns flat, and in between the call holds: a long coin can read below zero and a flat coin above it.
The share of tracked coins whose daily trend call is long after a daily close. The trend changes page draws it for the last 90 closes, one bar per close, with every coin's calls day by day below; a widget shows the same bars. It shows how broad an uptrend is and is not a signal of its own.
What following the calls would have returned on each coin's Coinbase USD market, long only, next to buy and hold: each fill one minute after a call changes, at the best ask (buy) or bid (sell), with a 0.6% fee per fill. The same fills are also shown at 0.1%.
PolySignals.net relays the daily trend calls to Cryptohopper as a signaler: every turn to long is sent as a buy and every turn to flat as a sell, to every matching market on Cryptohopper's exchanges. A hopper that subscribes trades on them.
How a daily trend signal reached Cryptohopper: the markets that accepted it, on how many exchanges, and apart from those any that Cryptohopper refused (it could not price the market) or that were still queued when the signal went stale. The Follow on Cryptohopper page lists each recent signal this way, and deliveries.json publishes the same record.
The currency a market prices a coin in: USDT in BTC/USDT, EUR in BTC/EUR. The daily trend signals go to every Cryptohopper market of the coin quoted in a USD-pegged currency (USD, USDT, USDC, FDUSD and the like) or a fiat currency (EUR, GBP, TRY, JPY and others), never to one quoted in another coin such as ETH/BTC. A hopper receives a signal only when its quote currency matches.
A coin that no prediction market or options exchange lists, so it has no window readings and no overall call. It gets the daily trend call only, which is relayed to Cryptohopper like any other coin's. Most coins on PolySignals.net are trend-only.
Each buy signal sent to Cryptohopper carries a stop-loss of 15%. It applies only where the subscriber's hopper lets the signaler set it; the sell that follows when the call turns flat is sent either way.
A Model Context Protocol server at polysignals.net/api/mcp that lets AI assistants such as Claude, ChatGPT and Cursor read the live readings, trend calls, backtest and news. Free, read-only and without a key.