# Bitcoin (BTC) on PolySignals.net

As of 2026-10-15T00:35:36Z. Spot $81,661.

The window readings mostly restate how far the coin has moved since the window opened, scaled by the time left: a readout of the crowd's price, not a forecast. The daily regime call is a trend rule, not a proven edge. Not financial advice.

## Overall call

Buy (weak), score +26, confidence 54. The confidence-weighted blend of the 1 hour, 4 hour and 1 day readings.

## Windows running now (all venues blended)

| Window | Call | Score (-100..+100) | Up probability | Confidence | Sources | Time left | Move since open |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 min | Sell (weak) | -22 | 39.0% | 28 low | Polymarket | 88% | n/a |
| 15 min | Hold | +15 | 57.5% | 64 medium | Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless | 63% | +0.02% |
| 1 hour | Buy (weak) | +50 | 75.0% | 58 medium | Polymarket, Kalshi, Limitless, Gemini | 41% | +0.11% |
| 4 hours | Hold | +18 | 59.0% | 27 low | Polymarket | 85% | +0.07% |
| 1 day | Hold | +8 | 54.0% | 63 medium | Polymarket, Limitless | 64% | +0.08% |

## Next windows

| Window | Call | Score | Up probability | Confidence | Sources | Time left | Move since open |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 min | Hold | +2 | 51.0% | 55 medium | Polymarket | 100% | n/a |
| 15 min | Hold | 0 | 50.0% | 38 low | Polymarket | 100% | n/a |
| 1 hour | Hold | 0 | 50.0% | 34 low | Polymarket | 100% | n/a |
| 4 hours | Hold | 0 | 50.0% | 8 low | Polymarket | 100% | n/a |
| 1 day | Hold | 0 | 50.0% | 22 low | Polymarket | 100% | n/a |

## Each venue on its own (windows running now)

| Window | Venue | Call | Score | Up probability | Volume | Notes |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 min | Polymarket | Sell (weak) | -22 | 39.0% | $4.00 |  |
| 5 min | Limitless | Hold | +4 | 52.0% | $0 |  |
| 5 min | Gemini | no quote | n/a | n/a | $0 |  |
| 15 min | Polymarket | Hold | +8 | 54.0% | $0 |  |
| 15 min | Kalshi | Buy (weak) | +22 | 61.0% | $939,850 |  |
| 15 min | Limitless | Hold | +18 | 59.0% | $2.00 |  |
| 15 min | Gemini | Buy (weak) | +32 | 66.0% | $0 |  |
| 1 hour | Polymarket | Buy (weak) | +42 | 71.0% | $5,226 |  |
| 1 hour | Kalshi | Buy (weak) | +56 | 78.0% | $80,906 | derived from a strike ladder |
| 1 hour | Limitless | Buy (weak) | +46 | 73.0% | $12.00 |  |
| 1 hour | Gemini | Buy (weak) | +58 | 79.2% | $255.00 | derived from a strike ladder |
| 4 hours | Polymarket | Hold | +18 | 59.0% | $357.00 |  |
| 1 day | Polymarket | Hold | +8 | 54.0% | $24,960 |  |
| 1 day | Kalshi | Hold | +2 | 50.9% | $27,812 | derived from a strike ladder |
| 1 day | Limitless | Hold | +8 | 54.0% | $68.00 |  |
| 1 day | Binance options | Sell (strong) | -94 | 2.8% | $68,996 | implied from options prices |
| 1 day | Deribit options | Sell (strong) | -93 | 3.6% | $76,560 | implied from options prices |
| 1 day | Bybit options | Sell (strong) | -90 | 4.8% | $52,190,682 | implied from options prices |
| 1 day | OKX options | Sell (strong) | -93 | 3.3% | $31,769,465 | implied from options prices |

## Daily regime call

**Long** for 3 days. Close $81,601 on 2026-10-14, 0.41 daily sigmas above the 50-day average ($81,164). It goes flat on a close below $80,088. Next decision 2026-10-16T00:05:00Z. The four-hour paper variant (never relayed) is long as of 2026-10-14T12:00:00Z.

## Live backtest (Coinbase BTC-USD, 0.6% a fill, since 2026-10-13T02:32:43Z)

| Strategy | Net return | Gross (no fees) | Buy & hold | Round trips | Win rate | Max drawdown | Holding now |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 5 min | -74.50% | -0.62% | -1.77% | 113 | 0% | 74.5% | USD |
| 15 min | -61.98% | -1.02% | -1.77% | 79 | 0% | 62.0% | coin since 2026-10-15T00:35:36Z |
| 1 hour | -33.51% | -4.02% | -1.77% | 30 | 0% | 33.6% | coin since 2026-10-15T00:05:36Z |
| 4 hours | -9.00% | -1.00% | -1.77% | 7 | 14% | 10.0% | USD |
| 1 day | -3.37% | -1.02% | -1.77% | 2 | 0% | 3.9% | USD |
| Overall | -25.30% | -3.24% | -1.77% | 21 | 0% | 25.4% | coin since 2026-10-15T00:05:36Z |
| Daily regime | -1.76% | -1.17% | -1.77% | 0 | n/a | 3.2% | coin since 2026-10-13T02:34:36Z |
| 4-hour regime (paper) | -1.76% | -1.17% | -1.77% | 0 | n/a | 3.2% | coin since 2026-10-13T02:34:36Z |

## Links

- Page: https://polysignals.net/btc/
- JSON: https://polysignals.net/api/v1/signals.json (coins.BTC), history https://polysignals.net/api/v1/history/BTC.json
- Method: https://polysignals.net/methodology/